2D BOY have posted about the piracy World of Goo has suffered since launch. After Ron Carmel mentioned the figure – 90% – in a comment on RPS this week, the story was picked up across the internet. And it’s shaken a lot of people.
Carmel explains how they reached the dramatic figure.
“first, and most importantly, how we came up with this number: the game allows players to have their high scores reported to our server (it’s an optional checkbox). we record each score and the IP from which it came. we divided the total number of sales we had from all sources by the total number of unique IPs in our database, and came up with about 0.1. that’s how we came up with 90%.”
He then goes on to point out the possible inaccuracies: people installing a legitimate copy on multiple computers (I know I have), dynamic IP addresses, multiple pirated copies behind the same firewall, and people not checking the high score box, all of which could push the figure in either direction. But of course, it’s unlikely it would be that far each way.
Edit: It’s pointed out below that dynamic IP addresses could have a dramatic effect on this figure. I’ve no idea at all, but it would make sense that this could skew the results.
You might assume that the response to this – by any developer, let alone two guys on their own – would be to conclude that some manner of DRM was necessary. 2D BOY used World of Goo as an experiment, deliberately releasing it without any form of DRM, and said they would publish the results. And here they are: a 90% piracy rate. It’s got to hurt. As hypocritical as it may be, I find myself feeling far more angry that people have chosen to acquire this game without paying, than I am when it’s from a large corporation. It shakes my (personal – not the opinion of RPS) belief that DRM is both pointless and damaging. But amazingly, not 2D BOY’s.
Carmel links to Russell Carroll’s article about the 92% piracy rate of Ricochet. This is where that famous, controversial figure appeared, arguing that 1000 pirated copies of a game only represents one lost sale. Carmel continues,
“in our case, we might have even converted more than 1 in a 1000 pirates into legit purchases. either way, ricochet shipped with DRM, world of goo shipped without it, and there seems to be no difference in the outcomes. we can’t draw any conclusions based on two data points, but i’m hoping that others will release information about piracy rates so that everyone could see if DRM is the waste of time and money that we think it is.”
A remarkable response. But also a rational one. It’s so very impressive to remain rational in the face of learning how many people are taking the game you worked so hard on without giving you any money. It deserves enormous kudos.
Meanwhile, Spike TV’s Video Game Awards show has added a Best Independent Game category, in which World of Goo is nominated. It’s open to a vote, and along with Goo you can vote for Audiosurf, Braid, and PixelJunk Eden.
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@Eamo
A good point, but unfortunately pirates have beaten that already. What you described is basically what Steam is. Pirates beat Steam years ago. They just reworked it so that the game stops phoning home. It does help with piracy though, since cracking teams can’t put out a full version until the game is officially released by Valve. So no one can steal it until the day of release. Valve themselves have stated that this has helped quite a bit with sales, as Day Zero piracy is the worst kind. But it has been beaten already.
@Echo
Thats the thing I don’t get. The whole “we do it because of DRM!” is total nonsense. People steal games because free is better than paying. I admire 2D Boy for being brave enough to try to release it without DRM, but honestly.
Stealing games on the PC is simply too easy. Until a company manages to make it harder without hurting the end user nothing is going to slow it down.
Steam is the closest anyone has gotten I think.
Locking down the PC = console. That would piss off enthusiasts — the folks who build their own rigs, optimize everything to their preferences, and buy high-end games.
As I mentioned in the forums, it’s still entirely possible to make highly profitable non-MMO PC games.
I’m still curious as to profitably of World of Goo. If they profited on the PC version, then they’re successful, right?
Is WoG in retail as well?
Time to sold old and condescending – despite the fact I’m young and stupid:
I’ve said it before Y3K me ol’ mucka, a hardware intervention’s needed! You mark my words.
@Tom
I’m with ya there man. I brought it up in another RPS story, where I suggested that maybe video card makers could add hardware that only allowed signed software to run.
Someone much more knowledgeable than me made it known that such a solution wouldn’t work though, as it would be way too overzealous.
But I think a hardware solution would be needed. The thing is, how do you convince ATI and nVidia to BOTH go for it, and at the same time?
More over, who would step up to the plate and pay them for doing it?
“This is a sad moment, as it calls out all those people who said they just pirated to avoid DRM, and is a ridiculous amount of people.” – I think it’s a bit of a leap of faith to assume that. They’re grim (if unsurprising) numbers but given we’ve already established that people offer different reasons to pirate things – we can’t automatically assume that those that said “I do it because of DRM” can’t, in at least some number, be legit purchasers and discounted.
Who knows though? We don’t have the data to make that call and it’s only wild flailing around pointing the finger a lot which doesn’t get anyone anywhere.
Depressing stats no matter how you paint it and I hope that 2dBoy make a nice hefty profit on WoG because it deserves to do well for being utterly, utterly brilliant. It just makes me sad to know that despite the clarity of their post and the conclusions they’ve come to, the Everiss’ of this world are going to run with that figure for all they can milk from it.
WILL UNIONS IMPREGNATE THE QUEEN?
I think they’ve missed the boat there…
That’s the same stat the original post was talking about, and which has already been thoroughly debunked here multiple times. Hoping that the unmeasurables will ‘balance out’ to turn your arse-pull (calling it an estimate would be far too generous) Just. Does. Not. Cut. It.
It would be about as accurate to write some numbers onto a blackboard and then throw a da–
“Hang on guys, there’s a NINETY-pound electromagnet suspended above the board! That’ll throw the dart way off!”
“Well, gravity affects your aim… We can safely assume that gravity will counter the magnet!”
It balances out!
edit: (okay, it’s a new post), it was kind of funny reading another ‘1 in 10′ stat here…
I would love to give kudos to 2D Boy for this amazing show of class and intelligence. Not only are they taking the slap in the face of losing money to pirates with grace, but they’re using it to help move the industry in the right direction. Every one of us paying PC customers appreciate you, and your efforts to improve the industry. Rest assured, you will receive my 20 bucks for your next game.
Hot, so if we divide the 2D Boy figures by the metric James T is citing we get 92%/25 = 3.68% piracy rate.
Granted, this is a wildly inaccurate outside guess, but it’s about as accurate as the original. So fucking LOL.
How sad. Not this history is in Slashdot : /
Why would people pirate a soo cheap and easy to get game? Is just 20 euros, can be downloaded from internet, is a few of MB, so is a short download. Maybe people have fear his credit card will be stealed or something?
People that have warez this title sux.
they’ve updated their post, and got a more accurate 82% figure. The bulk (over 3/4) are fixed IP. Close enough imo.
kf76: Oooh. Fascinating stuff.
KG
It’s probably because it’s so small and easy to pirate that lots of people have downloaded it. Plus they updated their website with a refactoring:
Read here – and scroll down.
after factoring both of these in, the piracy rate would still be 82%, and we should keep in mind that this number doesn’t include those who never opted to submit scores to the leaderboard (it’s an option that’s off by default). so while it’s possible that the actual piracy rate is lower than 90%, it’s unlikely that it’s significantly lower. 2d boy hopes this satisfies the more rigorous number crunchers out there :)
I don’t really see the big deal with this all. It’s NOT a game a lot of people out there would buy, but it is a type of game that’s going to be a curiosity a lot of people would try. Physics based puzzlers are on of my favourite things ever, so I bought it as soon as it was up for presale, but I’m the vast minority. And to a lot of people nowadays, pirating games IS the demo, regardless of if there’s one released. It’s how I found out FarCry 2 is a bunch of crap, and why I’ll be buying FO3 once it’s been patched a bit and sees official mod support.
I’d be more interested to just hear how many sales they HAVE had, instead of all these stupid percentages. I’m sure it’s many thousands, and really all you could hope for from a quirky little indy title.
As long as this doesn’t inspire them to do anything stupid in the future though, I’m fine.
Please note that a piracy rate of 82% as opposed to 90% would mean that there are “only” approximately half as many pirates – so this seemingly small drop in percentage is already very significant.
The corellation with unique user IDs they did makes this number a lot more convincing. It’s still pretty shakey, but then again it’s hard to find a way of measuring this better, since crackers would probably remove any “phone home” components. I still think the actual figure could be between half to ten times the current one (the question how many pirates submit their scores is very uncertain indeed)
MedO, can you explain the maths behind your 82% = half?
I can see how the drop from 90 to 80 means that twice as many legitimate copies exist. But that doesn’t mean the piracy rate has halved? Does it?
@John Walker: simple, the magic of ratios.
If 90% of games are pirated, the ratio of non-pirated games to pirated games is 1 to 9, or 0.11111. (For every non-pirated game, 9 pirated copies exist.)
If 80% of games are pirated, the ratio of non-pirated games to pirated games is 2 to 8, or 0.25. (For every non-pirated game, 4 pirated copies exist.)
This value, you will note, is more than twice the previous one.
A 50% piracy rate would be a 1:1 ratio, and represent one pirated copy for every un-pirated copy.
More than 90% is the sort of figure that I have heard for this sort of game before. If they have a rate around 80% then they would have doubled the sales if total number of people was the same.
If I was making a downloadable game I would rather have a piracy rate of 95% and 1 million installs than a rate of 80% and 150 thousand installs because I would make more money and have more of a brand name. I’d let someone else worry about the players morality.
Who cares about how it’s stealing, how is it selling?
Seriously.
I bought it. Can’t get it to run.
How on earth can you not get a 2D non-DRMed game to run? What are you trying to run it on?
P.
It’s a Steam problem apparently. I bought it through Steam and have attempted to play it on two machines with vastly different spec’s (both high-end). The results are the same on both. That’s why I’m considering pirating a non-Steam version so I can actually play the game I paid for.
“The results are the same on both”
What error do you get?
P.
I’m clearly being a bit thick here. If 1 out of 10 copies are legitimate, then 9/10 are pirated. If it’s 2 out of 10, then 8/10 are pirated. If there were 100,000 copies of the game out there, then from the first stat there’s 90,000 pirated copies, and from the second there’s 80,000. How is that half?
@John Walker
Because the total number of games out there isn’t the constant – the number of games that have been bought is.
i.e., if 10,000 games have been sold with a 90% piracy rate, then there are 90,000 pirated copies out there. If 10,000 games have been sold with an 80% piracy rate, then there are 40,000 pirated copies out there – ie, half as many.
If the total number of copies out there were the constant, then although there’d only be an 11% decrease in the number of pirated copies (80k rather than 90k) the number of copies sold would double instead (i.e., 20k sales rather than 10k sales.)
Numbers are slippery wee bastards.
But I thought 2DB were basing their figures on the number of accounts – 150,000 – and the number they’ve sold. And then working out from that first number how many are legitimate users (at first they thought 10%, then after more maths, 18%).
I could be wrong.
@John Walker
the number of accounts is a constant in the maths they used to develop the ratio not the ratio itself, the number of copies sold is the constant in the ratio.
if the ratio was number of legit copies to accounts then the number of accounts would be relevant to the ratio.
Got here a bit late but these is one of the least sound figures I’ve seen for the impact of piracy. Of course dynamic IPs are going to influence that number, it’s ludicrous to claim that multiple IPs from only one source will have a negligible effect on the given estimate.
It’s pathetic and deeply frustrating that this statistic will probably be bandied about wooden-panelled boardrooms as gospel by people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
I seriously don’t understand all the fuss about accuracy and misrepresentation. Maybe that’s because I’m not on the ‘ban DRMS now!’-crusade.
Now, as a gamer, I loathe the more extreme forms of DRM, like the limited copies thing, but I’m not at all against DRM in itself. Games are products. Products should be protected from theft. I know, copying a game isn’t exactly the same but it still gets a ‘good’ in the hands of someone who hasn’t legally purchased it and deprived income from those who have to make a living out of it.
Of course there’ll be people who purchase some of the products they pirate, but that’s no reason to cut pirates any slack, except, perhaps if a game makes more income that way.
I mean, game piracy is the lamest piracy, period. Games are a luxury item bar none, and you’ll have to have sufficient income to be able to get the means to play computer games at all. So I don’t understand why it’s all about DRM, all the time, unless it’s to discuss the more extreme varieties.
And another thought: why are the producers always on the block because of DRM and never the pirates? Surely, if nobody pirates (a utopian idea, surely), there’ll be much less incentive to add more restrictive DRMs, especially since it costs money.
*ducks and covers*
It’s a really outstanding game. If get people to buy it IF I could ever find it in a store!
Don’t need to find it in a store, can get it online.
I bought two copies, I liked it so much. Well worth the $30 total.
I purchased this game thru Amazon and love it, but heck, my IP is static and I used to watch it change numerous times a day, every day. That means after owning this game for a month, these ‘pirate’ researchers are going to have a result of worse than 99.9% piracy just from me and my single usage of a legitimate game. This 90% is complete crap, but will now be used to justify the invasive and destructive measures used by EA and DRM software like SecuROM. I would’ve thought these ex-EA employees who authored this game would have had a few more clues than that, but apparently not. They’ve gone from being heroes to being patsys in my book. BOOOOOOO!
See… this article brings many mixed responses.
First off, the fact that piracy rates of this game are so high should flatter 2D Boy. World of Goo is a great game, so the fact that so many people are pirating it should at least tell them they did a good job.
Next up. Sure, they are losing sales, but between two guys, I’d hope World of Goo netted at least SOME profit for them. Who else are they splitting it with? Valve might take a little for them using Steam, and so might the rest of their distributors. (I’m not sure how they work.) What else are they paying for? They don’t have an office, they just have two laptops and a lot of coffee consumption.
And… finally… as everyone has noted, there are many reasons why they might not necessarily have accurate numbers.
2D Boy is impressive. World of Goo is great.
They aren’t necessarily complaining (are they? I didn’t read their report), and I’m not saying they should or shouldn’t.
…I’m gonna stop talking now, cause I’m confusing myself :P