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View Full Version : Estimating Skyrim PC sales from concurrent players on Steam



thesisko
11-11-2011, 09:17 PM
So, 230K online playing Skyrim right this moment. As I recall, Portal 2 peaked at about 100K on launch day and went on to sell at least 1M copies on PC (3M total and Gabe said it did better on PC than consoles).

So that would mean that Skyrim should sell 1.5M - 2M on PC in a few months. That's a lot of money for Bethesda on a platform they don't even bother to create a proper UI for.

Oh, and remember Bethesda saying that 90% of their audience is on consoles? (http://www.neoseeker.com/news/16252-bethesda-90-of-elder-scrolls-audience-on-consoles/) Seeing these numbers on Steam, I somehow doubt the accuracy of that number.

Fumarole
11-11-2011, 11:55 PM
231,417 is a lot of dragons, but not infinite.

coldvvvave
12-11-2011, 11:53 AM
You need a pie chart to make your numbers legit.

Grizzly
12-11-2011, 12:06 PM
With those steam stats, I get the idea that Skyrim sold better then Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3 combined...

The Mechanical Aggressor
12-11-2011, 01:06 PM
It's definitely sold more than MW3, as it has about 100K more concurrent players than Modern Warfare 3 singleplayer and multiplayer combined. According to the Battlefield 3 Stats website, BF3 had 182,000 concurrent players on release and has over 87,000 at the moment which is quite good.

CMaster
12-11-2011, 01:12 PM
I'd like to suggest that different game genres probably have a different sales-to-daily-max-players multiplier. Probably not enough to offset the massive lead that Skyrim has over MW3 mind.

Vandelay
12-11-2011, 02:34 PM
I also imagine that Skyrim players are far more likely to play for longer periods of time in single sittings, thus more people end up being on at the same time. The MW3 players probably come and go more frequently.

These stats can give you guide, but I can't imagine them being very helpful when looking at total sales.

Mohorovicic
12-11-2011, 08:05 PM
Oh, and remember Bethesda saying that 90% of their audience is on consoles? (http://www.neoseeker.com/news/16252-bethesda-90-of-elder-scrolls-audience-on-consoles/) Seeing these numbers on Steam, I somehow doubt the accuracy of that number.

I think people with hard numbers on sales figures have more authority than broad speculation of Some Guy.

Sorry.

SirKicksalot
12-11-2011, 08:13 PM
Apparently Tripwire said on an episode of the PC Gamer Podcast that their peak concurrent numbers usually represent 10% of the total # unique players throughout the day.

Keep
12-11-2011, 08:46 PM
One more factor: word of mouth has a huge effect on longevity of sales.


As I recall, Portal 2 peaked at about 100K on launch day and went on to sell at least 1M copies on PC (3M total and Gabe said it did better on PC than consoles).

I'd imagine the almost unanimously positive discussion about Portal 2 really helped it reach that final total.

ComradePenguin
12-11-2011, 11:13 PM
I'd imagine the almost unanimously positive discussion about Portal 2 really helped it reach that final total.

It also helps it released with fewer big titles around it and dropped in price fairly rapidly.

Lukasz
12-11-2011, 11:51 PM
well it definitely sold better than TW2

somini
13-11-2011, 01:02 AM
I would like to add that a lot of people will be playing Skyrim in a year(like me), but not a single one will be playing MW3.

ZIGS
13-11-2011, 01:02 AM
Max concurrent users:

Skyrim - 274,410

MW3 - 120,112 (divided between sp and mp)

Once again, PC gamers showed better taste than the consoletards (where I'm sure the scenario is the opposite)

sabrage
13-11-2011, 02:09 AM
"Consoletards" implies that you don't understand the difference in terms of barriers to entry between consoles and PC. Making it somewhat of an ironic term to use, but there you go.

I'd also like to point out that MW2 is still going strong, 2 years after release, beating out many newer games.

Fumarole
13-11-2011, 04:57 AM
..........

somini
13-11-2011, 06:05 AM
---Quote (Originally by sabrage)---
"Consoletards" implies that you don't understand the difference in terms of barriers to entry between consoles and PC.
---End Quote---
The fact that the numbers for MW3 are pulled from Steam underscores the lack of understanding of the difference between consoles and PCs.
What the hell? I'm a bit confused here...

EDIT:And I apologize for quoting old messages. This will be up for historic purposes only. The opinions expressed in this post do not represent the current views hold by Fumarole.

Nalano
13-11-2011, 06:25 AM
What the hell? I'm a bit confused here...

Maybe he thinks MW3 isn't a Steamworks game?

Either way, he corrected.

sabrage
13-11-2011, 11:04 PM
He actually registered just to post that. I'm almost proud of myself.

slick_101
13-11-2011, 11:51 PM
I just think the reason skyrim is doing so well is because it's something new... Something fresh. Unlike call of 12 year old kids: Modern wankfare 3

Mohorovicic
14-11-2011, 08:45 AM
I just think the reason skyrim is doing so well is because it's something new... Something fresh. Unlike call of 12 year old kids: Modern wankfare 3


Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 day-one shipments are the largest for any game ever, Activision has said. "The record number of pre-orders from Modern Warfare 3 drove the largest day-one shipments in our history, and in the industry's history," said Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg during an earnings call on November 8, 2011. Hirshberg said more than 1.5 million people queued at 13,000 shops at midnight on Monday to buy Modern Warfare 3, "making it the largest retail release in Activision's history and in the industry's history". Activision reported sales figures for Modern Warfare 3 in the US and UK being more than 6.5 million copies sold on launch day and grossed $400 million in the US and UK alone in its first 24 hours, making it the biggest entertainment launch of all time.

0123456789

Nalano
14-11-2011, 03:47 PM
I just think the reason skyrim is doing so well is because it's something new... Something fresh. Unlike call of 12 year old kids: Modern wankfare 3

Oblivion 2.0 is new and fresh?

Wizardry
14-11-2011, 03:51 PM
Oblivion 2.0 is new and fresh?
I was thinking that. I'm not sure if there's anything in Skyrim that's new and fresh.

R-F
14-11-2011, 04:01 PM
This is basically the biggest circlewank thread in a forum of circlewank threads.

PeopleLikeFrank
14-11-2011, 04:03 PM
It's better than new and fresh. It's a new and fresh installment of old and familiar. Doesn't help you if you didn't like the old and familiar in the first place though.

Nalano
14-11-2011, 04:07 PM
It's better than new and fresh. It's a new and fresh installment of old and familiar. Doesn't help you if you didn't like the old and familiar in the first place though.

Is this one of those famed examples of newspeak?

Mohorovicic
14-11-2011, 04:08 PM
It's like Half Life 2 all over again!

PeopleLikeFrank
14-11-2011, 04:13 PM
Is this one of those famed examples of newspeak?

I suppose ;p.

Phrased otherwise: people love 'more of the same'. Gamers (or at least commentators on internet forums) do tend to throw a fit if a sequel doesn't change things up significantly, but I think most of the time people are just happy with additional content for things they already like. So 'new & fresh' applies because they get new adventures, and aren't terribly concerned about innovation.

luckystriker
15-11-2011, 11:20 AM
Oh, and remember Bethesda saying that 90% of their audience is on consoles? (http://www.neoseeker.com/news/16252-bethesda-90-of-elder-scrolls-audience-on-consoles/) Seeing these numbers on Steam, I somehow doubt the accuracy of that number.

That could be about right. Just from quickly browsing other multi-platform games on vgchartz, BF3 sold 600,000 odd copies on PC and over 5million on PS3 and X360 (as of Nov. 5th). Just a bit less than 90% of all sales coming from consoles.

baboonanza
15-11-2011, 11:25 AM
I suppose ;p.

Phrased otherwise: people love 'more of the same'. Gamers (or at least commentators on internet forums) do tend to throw a fit if a sequel doesn't change things up significantly, but I think most of the time people are just happy with additional content for things they already like. So 'new & fresh' applies because they get new adventures, and aren't terribly concerned about innovation.
Not quite. People expect improvements whilst staying relatively true to the concept, and historically that is what game sequels tend to deliver. Skyrim is a prime example of this since (to my mind) everything bar the UI is an amazing improvement over Oblivion but you can still tell it's the same franchise. It does still feel fresh to me thyough, partly since it's been so long since Oblivion and partly because they really have got it right this time.

Innovation is for new IP.

R-F
15-11-2011, 11:59 AM
I'll buy it when the goatee edition comes out.

CrinnyCow
15-11-2011, 09:00 PM
That could be about right. Just from quickly browsing other multi-platform games on vgchartz, BF3 sold 600,000 odd copies on PC and over 5million on PS3 and X360 (as of Nov. 5th). Just a bit less than 90% of all sales coming from consoles.
I do not believe vgcharts accounts for digital distribution. I'm not entirely sure though. I find it hard to believe Battlefield 3 only sold 600,000 copies on PC so far though...

thesisko
15-11-2011, 10:01 PM
That could be about right. Just from quickly browsing other multi-platform games on vgchartz, BF3 sold 600,000 odd copies on PC and over 5million on PS3 and X360 (as of Nov. 5th). Just a bit less than 90% of all sales coming from consoles.

According to VGChartz:
* DX:HR sold 650K in Europe -> official numbers are 1.38M. Wrong by 100%.
* The Witcher 2 sold 650K -> according to CD Projekt it has sold over a million. Wrong by 50%.
* Portal 2 on PC sold 330K -> according to Valve it sold at least a million. Wrong by 200%.

In conclusion: VGChartz is about as good as asking your mom to guess how many copies were sold.

Lewie Procter
15-11-2011, 10:09 PM
I believe they just make up the numbers.

luckystriker
16-11-2011, 04:51 AM
I believe they just make up the numbers.
That's 3 of you saying vgchartz is nonsense. So is there any place I can go where you guys think I can find accurate sales figures?

Moraven
16-11-2011, 08:21 AM
Hope NPD releases numbers or the company does.

Roarster
16-11-2011, 10:59 AM
In conclusion: VGChartz is about as good as asking your mom to guess how many copies were sold.

I believe that's the actual technique they use.