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  1. #41
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuantaCat View Post
    but independance is necessary, otherwise you will just end up with oppression of one or the other kind.
    Of course, but not now. Can you imagine what happened to Georgia in 2008 may happen again to Ukraine? What about Czech in 1968?

    Independence is what Ukraine deserve to achieve as an ultimate goal, but right now it needs protection against the northern "brother". Seriously, do people forget what this "brother" did to Little Russia in 1930s?!
    Last edited by squirrel; 27-01-2014 at 02:14 PM.

  2. #42
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    http://zyalt.livejournal.com/984735.html is a blog post with a crapton of pictures on the subject

    While pretty biased (contradicts itself in many places and the lack of pictoral evidence for many aspects makes me question it a lot*), it does shed a lot of light on just who are involved.

    What I find most concerning (and least surprising) is how there doesn't seem to be any unified reason for the riot aside from "fuck Yanukovich". And that the closest thing the protesters/rioters/rebels have to a leader is barely holding on to the crowd. This makes me VERY concerned about if the riot will really stop when they "get what they want" since it doesn't seem like the crowd even knows what they want. This is the kind of atmosphere that leads to mass destruction or "the king is dead, long live the king" revolutions.

    While obviously nowhere near the same scale, this reminds me a lot of the US's "Occupy" movement, in that you have a very large crowd of dissatisfied people who are rallying together... but don't know why**. And the off-hand mention of people on both sides using the ceasefire for taking pictures to update their social media profiles (and the pictures used to show that it is just normal folk involved) make this seem a lot like something that a lot of people are doing just "because", which, once more, does not bode well for the Ukraine in the long run.

    *: The biggest issues I see are that there is apparently no looting but store owners are still putting up pleas to not loot their stores. And that this is apparently very confined to only the government buildings but that "misfires" have burned down a store. And that the city is apparently operating "normally", but the guy couldn't be arsed to provide pictoral evidence of that (whereas he supports almost every other claim with a photo). Also, there have been reports of white supremecist groups and other nere-do-wells being involved (and pictoral evidence of their flags and what not) without any mention of that in the blog post. So... grain of salt.

    **: Fun fact, a guy I work with is proud to say he was involved in the Occupy protests and the like... because the women were attractive and were willing to have sex with him. Yeah...
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  3. #43
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Occupying Wall Street and current anti-government movement in Ukraine are completely of two different levels. Americans are no where near starvation. I do admire the passion of those youths though.

    What move Ukrainians take, however, is going to determine the fate of their nation for the coming centuries.

  4. #44
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    Occupying Wall Street and current anti-government movement in Ukraine are completely of two different levels. Americans are no where near starvation. I do admire the passion of those youths though.
    My point is that it has the same sense of spiraling out of control and direction, it is just MUCH worse because this is an ARMED group

    Basically, you have the people who feel VERY strongly and have very specific grievances and ideas for solutions. And they all come together in their hatred of the opposition, even if their solutions may be mutually exclusive. Then you have the people who are there because it is what everyone else is doing, the people who are apparently taking "selfies" and the like. The people who just want "to be part of the movement"

    When you have a peaceful protest, that pretty much kills your momentum in this day and age (back before the 24-hour news cycle the media would just comment on how there is a huge turnout. Now the media actually interviews people...). When you have a "less than peaceful" protest, that is VERY dangerous. The blog post I linked to even mentions that people ignored/didn't believe the closest thing the mob has to a leader the previous time he had negotiated with the opposition. And other articles and blogs I have read seem to corroborate this.

    So what does that tell us? It tells us that the Ukraine has a headless mob that is armed with molotov cocktails (potentially more), has less than "good" groups involved, and that is already spiraling out of control. And that is VERY scary as it pretty much guarantees one of the following outcomes:

    1. The most forceful group "wins". I don't think I need to explain why this is a bad thing
    2. The mob is dispersed without accomplishing anything and it largely discredits the Ukranian people as "aimless morons" (see Occupy :p)
    3. It continues to spiral and the riot spreads to other cities until it is stopped by force.

    And none of those seem like particularly good outcomes.
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  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by gundato View Post
    So what does that tell us? It tells us that the Ukraine has a headless mob that is armed with molotov cocktails (potentially more), has less than "good" groups involved, and that is already spiraling out of control.
    That's basically how most collapses of order and ruling legitimacy end up as, can't really help it. Of course, the best option would be some negotiated settlement with crucial constitutional changes and fresh elections in the near future.

    It's funny how Yanukovich missed his moment for being conciliatory - he does it now, after trying to go hardline for months. Had he offered truce months ago, they would have been finalizing some hopefully cornerstone agreement right now.

  6. #46
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mouton View Post
    That's basically how most collapses of order and ruling legitimacy end up as, can't really help it. Of course, the best option would be some negotiated settlement with crucial constitutional changes and fresh elections in the near future.
    Sadly, yeah. Hopefully the end result ends up being better for the people of the Ukraine, but my hopes aren't high.
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by gundato View Post
    Sadly, yeah. Hopefully the end result ends up being better for the people of the Ukraine, but my hopes aren't high.
    On the other hand, all countries started in gutter.

  8. #48
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Ukrainians are much more violent because of their background: back till late 1980s this was still a totalitarian state, No, it's part of a totalitarian state of which the regime was exploiting the best of them. That regime itself was their enemy. They didn't gain their independence 2 decades ago, and now it is very likely this independence would come to an end. That desperation, you have to understand why they have to resort to violence. And all those fire works, at least till now, were all just for the show to feed the western journalism, to draw international attention. I seriously don't believe that casualties could be so low. Those policemen are, after all, those demonstrators' countrymen. The police aren't those who should be targeted.

    And the demonstration really has no leaders? It seems to me it is very well organized. But this has spread to the whole nation, Pripyat is probably the only Ukraine's city in peace.

    This, is a revolution

    Oh, a very important thing I miss.
    Quote Originally Posted by gundato View Post
    **: Fun fact, a guy I work with is proud to say he was involved in the Occupy protests and the like... because the women were attractive and were willing to have sex with him. Yeah...
    No Photo No Talk~ :P
    Last edited by squirrel; 29-01-2014 at 04:40 AM.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    Ukrainians are much more violent because of their background: back till late 1980s this was still a totalitarian state
    Half of Europe as well as China was totalitarian in that time. It doesn't mean people are automatically more violent.

    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    I seriously don't believe that casualties could be so low.
    European former communist states have long tradition of riot control. While this means the riot police are often brutal motherfuckers, it also means that they are mostly limiting themselves to beating people up and not opening live fire on protesters like panicked police - or military - in many other countries.

    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    The police aren't those who should be targeted.
    Being targeted is their job, actually :)

    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    And the demonstration really has no leaders?
    There are leaders. They are not very unified, except for their deep dislike towards the current rulers.

    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    now it is very likely this independence would come to an end.
    No, it isn't, no one is going to take it away. If you mean that they will become a pawn of other powers, then they already are anyway.

    The problem isn't Putin or EU, really. The whole mess is a fruit of decades of mismanagement, kleptocracy and corruption, committed by almost every politician or civil servant who got any kind of power. Things were simply very rotten, this explosion could have been caused by any other trigger as well.

  10. #50
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Xercies's Avatar
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    Uh I dont know if you noticed but everyone is violent when it comes to riots especially if the police are going to be violent as well.

  11. #51
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Sorry for my poor English. Actually I am not saying that Ukrainians are violent in nature, I am saying that given their desperation, they need to resort to violence. It's the time they stand up or perish.

    You guys don't understand Russia. This polar bear has a very unique character of "I eat you if I want to, why do I need justification for that?" Hell, even Adolf Hitler made his every move of invasion with justification (whether you buy them all or not is another matter though). We know the neighbour well, so our Northeastern army is the most mechanized, advanced and mighty of our whole miliary. Pretext is we need to stand guard against North Korea and US forces in Korea and Japan, but everyone involved know well to ourselves: our Northeastern army is primarily standing guard against the polar bear.

    You find it to be inconceivable Kiev's strategic points to be suddenly captured by Russian Spetsnaz in just one night? Russia is not playing by the same rule with Imperial America. If the USA needs to invade a country, it has to spend at least a month for the PR (actually, most US invasions spent at least half a year, but even a self-defence war after 911 needed a month for PR). Russia does not have to. "I eat you if I want to, why do I need justification for that?"

    Ukraine, after its cabinet resigned and remained in posts until new cabinet is formed (I don't like the way CNN reported this. Ukraine's President holds real power, so until Yanukovych resigned, the administration is essentially the same in nature), there will be very likely amnesty granted to all protesters. Right now the government promised it won't call in the military. They are wise not to, soldiers with real honor should, right now, stormed the government house and has the traitorous officials held for justice.

  12. #52
    Moderator QuantaCat's Avatar
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    Im sorry, "you guys dont understand russia"? What? You do know that its mostly europeans here, not americans? the same europeans that have had to live with death threats from Russia for most of the second half of the 20th century?

    Note: of course most of us arent probably from that time where it was a real threat, but that shit doesnt just fade away overnight.
    - Tom De Roeck.

    verse publications

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    "It's frankly embarrassing. The mods on here are woeful."

    "I wrinkled my nose at QC being a mod."

    "At least he has some personality."

  13. #53
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    When someone commented that Ukraine's danger is nothing more than being pawns of any foreign powers, either of the west or of Russia, than I know, that you guys don't understand.

    Given you are all educated, you can easily read and recall any historical events. But this, is completely different from perceiving Russia as a clear and present danger. Actually, anyone who lives within range of Russia's ICBMs are living "with death threats from Russia for most of the second half of the 20th century?". But Russians are calculating beings (they are, after all, very scientific just like westerners), if they maintain conventional forces right out of your door steps, you will feel the threat.

    First thing first, why Chernobyl has a nuclear plant in the first place? If you care about your subjects' well-being, would you build a nuclear plant with obsolete design so close to the people you are obligated to protect? This, simply already is a death threat. If not, why don't they build it next to Moscow?!

  14. #54
    Moderator QuantaCat's Avatar
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    oh but thats also a thing that europe does: investing in foreign power plants so they can buy up excess power and it politically isnt their fault when a foreign power builds that close to their citizens.

    and anyway, china wasnt used as a buffer country between russia and the US. Dont think for one second that we doubt US and Russia too. the problem is, however, that in western europe, US culture sortof infected them to agree with the US more, and the further east you get, that influence fades or becomes something else.
    - Tom De Roeck.

    verse publications

    "Quantacat's name is still recognised even if he watches on with detached eyes like Peter Molyneux over a cube in 3D space, staring at it with tears in his eyes, softly whispering... Someday they'll get it."

    "It's frankly embarrassing. The mods on here are woeful."

    "I wrinkled my nose at QC being a mod."

    "At least he has some personality."

  15. #55
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    The software company I work for outsources a lot of work to the Ukraine. Primarily to a company in Kharkov. They haven't been impacted at all. However Kharkov is in the eastern, more Russian end of the country.

    It is quite scary knowing that this President is as popular as he is. The eastern side of the country are really behind him. If this did boil over into conflict, it would likely split the country in two.

  16. #56
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surlywombat View Post
    It is quite scary knowing that this President is as popular as he is. The eastern side of the country are really behind him. If this did boil over into conflict, it would likely split the country in two.
    Yanukovych is a legitimately elected president, no doubt.

    And you are right, the first President of independent Ukraine expressed worries as you've mentioned, too (I read that on CNN's web, can't locate the link now though). I believe that's exactly why Yanukovych doesn't dare to mobilize military at this stage.

    (But that first President, as I recall, was also a corrupted former Soviet bureaucrat, who didn't quite protect his own nation.)

    Eastern provinces are generally pro-Russia, and they are where the heavy industries, once pillars of Ukraine's economy mainly locate. But time has changed, competitiveness of Ukraine's heavy industries, like automobile making and steel works have faded away and probably would never come back. I think Ukrainians know this well to themselves. Yet this is a state of science and technology. They can develop their own new hi-tech technology. That's why tie to western world becomes so vital to them. Plus, maintain normal economic relationship with the west does in no way implicate that they have to cut tie to Russia; if Russia is playing fair, that is.

    Right now he is under hell a lot of pressure: so much that his physical health broke down. Days ago he suffered from high fever. As I know, once he felt better, he immediately signed amnesty for protesters, yet a conditional one requiring all protesters to withdraw from government buildings first. Opposition leaders in their rational sense have rejected the offer.
    Last edited by squirrel; 04-02-2014 at 01:36 PM.

  17. #57
    Moderator QuantaCat's Avatar
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    oh the poor poor president.

    You assume a lot, squirrel.
    - Tom De Roeck.

    verse publications

    "Quantacat's name is still recognised even if he watches on with detached eyes like Peter Molyneux over a cube in 3D space, staring at it with tears in his eyes, softly whispering... Someday they'll get it."

    "It's frankly embarrassing. The mods on here are woeful."

    "I wrinkled my nose at QC being a mod."

    "At least he has some personality."

  18. #58
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuantaCat View Post
    oh the poor poor president.

    You assume a lot, squirrel.
    Which president you mean? First one (I cant recall his name), Yushchenko or Yanukovych?

    If you're referring to
    Yanukovych's fever, CNN reported it, that's how I know.

  19. #59
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Zephro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuantaCat View Post
    the problem is, however, that in western europe, US culture sortof infected them to agree with the US more,
    That's an interesting idea.

  20. #60
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    What's doomed to happen will happen. Tuesday's crackdown on Kiev's Independence Square has costed 25 souls.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/19/wo...html?hpt=hp_t1

    My information is not updated. As I know, 14 of them were protesters and 7 of them police (figure at the time when the death toll was 21). Yanukovych is not a decent politician but he definitely is a sensible or even calculating one. Currently he officially promises that the authority is not going to press any charges against any detained protesters. But this move is too late. Kiev is already engulfed in battle.

    Why are the policemen still on the regime's side? That is not the government you should be guarding for. You should be guarding for your people, not those corrupted former Soviet bureaucrats. Switch side now, go make history.

    And what the west is waiting for?

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