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  1. #61
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Grizzly's Avatar
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    And what the west is waiting for?
    Violating another country's sovereignity is an very extremy measure which should not be taken lightly in any way, as the repercussions can end up being worse then the status quo, as middle eastern history shows. This is further complicated by Russia's position of power in that particular region.

    Similarily, I can imagine police officers unwilling to ´switch sides' as this could encourage more violence rather then stem it, and escelation is something you'd want to avoid, although leaders on both sides obviously wish for it to go on.

  2. #62
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Wolfenswan's Avatar
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    Just to repeat myself from ealier in this thread:

    This isn't a protest of super-liberal "we are the people" democrats against the evil government. Nationalists and fascists are an active part of the opposition and constitute a good number of the militant protest. The political-center of the opposition has yet to rennounce them or their alliance with Swoboda.

    The picture painted in Media here is extremly one-sided and essentially anti-Russian propaganda (as much as it is anti-west propaganda in Russia's media I assume).

    Janukowitsch is actively trying to make concessions, even if small ones. Nikolai Arsarow (incl. cabinett) stepped back (as called for by the opposition). Suggestions were made to the opposition to take posts in government and it was offered to strengthen the parliaments power against the president. Amnesty for jailed protestors was offered if government buildings would be cleared.

    The opposition has denied any compromise. They don't want peace or an end to the conflict, first and foremost they want the power for themselves. This isn't a conflict to take sides in, unless your idea of choice is picking between two evils. I wouldn't be too suprised if anti-Russian pogroms follow an opposition victory.


    And as a side-note:
    25 dead (most of them in the recent days) and only a bit over one hundred people jailed in a conflict of this size? That's extremly low numbers.
    Last edited by Wolfenswan; 19-02-2014 at 12:55 PM.

  3. #63
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfenswan View Post
    25 dead (most of them in the recent days) and only a bit over one hundred people jailed in a conflict of this size? That's extremly low numbers.
    ... so how many of the death toll would be meaningful? More importantly, 25 is not the death toll of the whole crisis, it is the death toll of the clash in Kiev Independence Square in one single day, yesterday.

    In my view, both lost protesters and police officers are victims of the irresponsible policy of their government.

  4. #64
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    ... so how many of the death toll would be meaningful? More importantly, 25 is not the death toll of the whole crisis, it is the death toll of the clash in Kiev Independence Square in one single day, yesterday.

    In my view, both lost protesters and police officers are victims of the irresponsible policy of their government.
    Counter-argument: The lost protesters and police officers are victims of the power-hungry groups manipulating the protest to their own ends.

    That is kind of my big issue with this. The Internet loves to side with "the innocent and righteous protesters", but there are a LOT of shady groups involved and there is no real sign of any meaningful leadership potentials in that group. I can easily imagine a lot of good people saying "Well, I work for a complete and total monster, but at least he isn't trying to burn down my city or destroy my home. Whereas these crazy bastards are screaming that they will lynch me if I don't join them. God damn it..."

    It is a shitty situation no matter how you look at it.
    Last edited by gundato; 19-02-2014 at 03:41 PM.
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  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfenswan View Post
    The picture painted in Media here is extremly one-sided and essentially anti-Russian propaganda (as much as it is anti-west propaganda in Russia's media I assume).
    Depends on the media. Also, Putin is actively urging for crackdown and calls the protesters "terrorists". Reporting it is not anti-russian, it's just what happens.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfenswan View Post
    Janukowitsch is actively trying to make concessions, even if small ones. Nikolai Arsarow (incl. cabinett) stepped back (as called for by the opposition). Suggestions were made to the opposition to take posts in government and it was offered to strengthen the parliaments power against the president. Amnesty for jailed protestors was offered if government buildings would be cleared.

    The opposition has denied any compromise. They don't want peace or an end to the conflict, first and foremost they want the power for themselves.
    Yanukovitch seems to handle this situation horribly. First, he ignored the opposition for months, then he cracked down, then he offered concessions, then crackdown etc.. Opposition might be not very reliable itself, but man, the government is inept.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfenswan View Post
    This isn't a conflict to take sides in, unless your idea of choice is picking between two evils.
    I am opposed to romanticizing the opposition, but they did start with legitimate grievances. The country is corrupt to the core on all levels, everything is plundered by whoever has enough power to do so, the government is authoritarian and focused on maintaining power. Opposition is becoming radicalized and violent, but it is government who started with control in the first place. They should have either negotiated from the start or called new elections.

    But now it is probably too late. Civil war ahoy. Hope I am wrong.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post

    My information is not updated. As I know, 14 of them were protesters and 7 of them police
    Probably a sign that I play too many online shooters when my first thought was that the government had a 2.0 K/D.
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  7. #67
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    There is a commentary I read in today's local newspaper, which I found very interesting and may really reflect the truth. It suggests that Yanukovych has actually been playing a game by tolerating the protest all those months. He is using it as a leverage to force Putin to raise his offer, and Yanukovych seems to currently have the upper hand - if he can keep the protest in check. Downside is, Putin would definitely, in his perfect sense, demand that Yanukovych suppress the protest with whatever means necessary (this means, of course violent force). After the first installment of USD2B was released, other installments of the USD16B offer are now put on hold and the official justification to this decision: there is a coup by protesters going on in Ukraine and Russia could not release further financial offering under such circumstance. Yes, this is official announcement, in plain English. Putin is, after all, a Russian, "I eat you if I want to, why do I need justification for that?!"

    NATO has just expressed its concern. It should be concerned (good morning, boy, why don't you sleep till next Christmas? It's still cold out there). If Russia has a neighbour in coup (you don't have to speculate what Putin is thinking, because he has just announced so) and may threaten Russia's interest, what would be Putin's response?

    And the game has just gone South. Yanukovych has just lost control of the situation.
    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/20/wo...html?hpt=hp_t1

    Quote Originally Posted by gundato View Post
    That is kind of my big issue with this. The Internet loves to side with "the innocent and righteous protesters", but there are a LOT of shady groups involved and there is no real sign of any meaningful leadership potentials in that group. I can easily imagine a lot of good people saying "Well, I work for a complete and total monster, but at least he isn't trying to burn down my city or destroy my home. Whereas these crazy bastards are screaming that they will lynch me if I don't join them. God damn it..."
    I see that you are still comparing them with Occupying Wall Streeters. I personally hold some respects towards those Occupying Wall Streeters but that's irrelevant here. My point being, that the two movements are of completely different level. Those Ukrainians down there are fighting for the future of their own and their next generations. What they are doing right now is going to determine the fate of their people for this and the coming centuries. They are noble, not some hipsters who are wearing Gap and yelling "down the Capitalism".
    Last edited by squirrel; 20-02-2014 at 12:46 PM.

  8. #68
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    I see that you are still comparing them with Occupying Wall Streeters. I personally hold some respects towards those Occupying Wall Streeters but that's irrelevant here. My point being, that the two movements are of completely different level. Those Ukrainians down there are fighting for the future of their own and their next generations. What they are doing right now is going to determine the fate of their people for this and the coming centuries. They are noble, not some hipsters who are wearing Gap and yelling "down the Capitalism".
    What the hell did that have to do with The Occupy Movement?

    You say they are noble. Hell, I imagine a good many of the people involved DO have good intentions. I don't think the white supremacists do. I don't think the people "taking selfies" as that blogger mentioned (in a piece that was otherwise VERY pro-revolution) do.

    Thats the big issue. Even if the normal folk in that mob (who are throwing molotov cocktails and murdering people...) all have good intentions, the leadership is non-existent. And the closest things they have to leaders are pretty fucked up. Can you see how that might not be someone you want to give the keys to the country to?
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  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by gundato View Post
    Thats the big issue. Even if the normal folk in that mob (who are throwing molotov cocktails and murdering people...) all have good intentions, the leadership is non-existent. And the closest things they have to leaders are pretty fucked up. Can you see how that might not be someone you want to give the keys to the country to?
    You must have missed the vids of police shooting people with kalashnikovs and sniper rifles. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6IbEIBhb8o

    Keys to the country are already in bad hands, so I suppose shit just has to happen.

  10. #70
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mouton View Post
    You must have missed the vids of police shooting people with kalashnikovs and sniper rifles. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6IbEIBhb8o

    Keys to the country are already in bad hands, so I suppose shit just has to happen.
    Which makes it a case of choosing the lesser of two evils, which is why this is a shitty affair entirely.
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  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by gundato View Post
    Which makes it a case of choosing the lesser of two evils, which is why this is a shitty affair entirely.
    Yes, well, when you are at this degree of political turmoil, things are usually not simple at all. The "good guys vs bad guys" is usually just a beautiful myth people want to believe in. Still, I consider the government the bigger assholes in this case.

  12. #72
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mouton View Post
    Yes, well, when you are at this degree of political turmoil, things are usually not simple at all. The "good guys vs bad guys" is usually just a beautiful myth people want to believe in. Still, I consider the government the bigger assholes in this case.
    And good on you for that. I just get annoyed when people pretend this is a very simple case and all the people on side A should throw down their arms and join side B.
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  13. #73
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    "Ukrainian President Yanukovych agrees early election"

    He should have done it months ago and would have probably won again anyway, seeing how disjointed opposition was. What a dumbass.

  14. #74
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus gundato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mouton View Post
    "Ukrainian President Yanukovych agrees early election"

    He should have done it months ago and would have probably won again anyway, seeing how disjointed opposition was. What a dumbass.
    Good on him. Hopefully the riots will subside

    And the sad part is that he still might win as there isn't really a particularly strong alternative.
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  15. #75
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    If he wins the next elections and then is not extra-conciliatory, inclusive etc., then the opposition will probably just flip and things will go straight to civil war and fracturing of the country.

    The smart thing for him to do would be to have another candidate run in his place. Someone that would guarantee his interests but who would be untainted by this mess. Sadly, he doesn't seem to be a very nuanced fellow.

  16. #76
    Moderator QuantaCat's Avatar
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    Just heard on the austrian national radio (the good, objectively as possible informed one) an interview with one a political expert in Kiew. His opinion on the matter is that the president and russia will try to block this internal matter coming to a peaceful end to a certain degree, and that the opponents wont stop until the president is deposed.

    It will take "a considerable political effort between three parties: the president, the opposition and the ukrainian people, otherwise, there will just be blocking and hostile resurgeances, not being helped by the extreme right party which is actively promoting violence towards police, showing up to be the front of an active attack on police forces; not to be taken that they are the cause of the violence on the protestors or opposition's part, but they are surely a detriment to it all."

    the interviewee was surely biased, but he atleast seemed to have intelligently sounding reasoning for what each side in this conflict is doing.
    Last edited by QuantaCat; 21-02-2014 at 08:41 PM.
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  17. #77
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Yanukovych won't win the next presidential election without seriously rigging it, with or without this outbreak. He won over Yushchenko for simple economic reason: Ukrainians hoped that he could revive the Ukraine's economy, the task Yuschenko failed completely. So 3 years and what has Yanukovych accomplished so far? Nothing. I think he's been expecting this from the very beginning, that's why he throw Yulia Tymoshenko into prison in the first place, to get rid of a political rival. (Yuschenko, you are not a man, you will be cursed for betraying your comrade!) And of course, after this protest Yanukovych must be insane to hope for a miracle for him to remain in presidency for the next term.

    If you Yanukovych is a decent man, exonerate Tymoshenko first (not just release, but complete exoneration). She has committed no crime at all (and Yanukovych, you did on that matter, you are guilty of wrongful prosecution).

    And what's the accusation against the violence of the protesters all along? People have legitimate right to assembler, and attempt of the government to disperse them is outright illegal. So protesters' right have been brutally violated by the police, what do you expect the protesters should do in return? Roll out red carpet to welcome the police who firing tear gases at them?!

    I read that many, though not more than 50 police officers, after removing their equipment and back in their full uniforms, have joined the rank of protesters. Those are heroes of the people! Come, more and more police comrades should switch side now, go make history for your children's generation, make your country proud!

    Edit: Oh, turns out 50 police officers who turned to the bright side were in Kiev along. On the western state of Zakorpattia, it's the whole police force declared that they will no longer obey the central government's order to employ violent force against its people. And the state of Lviv even went ahead to declare independence from the central authority (but not the sovereign, it would rejoin the central after the criminals are removed from the central).

    And those riot police we are seeing on Kiev street, I mean, are they really in the police system we perceived in non-Soviet world? As I know, in Soviet countries, there are unique military formations called internal troops targeting (yes, I say targeting, those governments are targeting their own people) internal subjects, who are strictly seperated from national defence military. As I know, such system was originated given the history of Bolshevik's Red Army, who was largely converted from the tsarist army so they were generally not trusted by the Bolshevik leadership, so they need military they could absolutely trust for internal matters. If those so called "police" on the Kiev streets are actually those internal troops, no wonder why they cannot be reasoned with.
    Last edited by squirrel; 22-02-2014 at 01:27 AM.

  18. #78
    Moderator QuantaCat's Avatar
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    it wont take that long. they will depose him and kick him out.
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  19. #79
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus squirrel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuantaCat View Post
    it wont take that long. they will depose him and kick him out.
    Before the Military (I mean national defence military, not those who are now fighting the protesters in the Independence Square) takes side, no one can be sure. I read on Wednesday the Commander-in-Chief (not the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, who is always the current President) was dismissed and right before his dismissal, Gen. Zamana had expressed his refusal to suppress the protest by the military force under his command, perfectly explains why he lost his job.

    But right now what the military (again the national defence force I am referring to) should be guarding against, is the bear, not protesters. This is the true national defence.

    Yanukovych is foxy as hell. Let's not forget that he was the prime minister during the Orange Revolution. He is equipped with solid experience. Only one thing is for sure: he and his political party want to remain in power as hell, and will not hesitate to sell out Ukraine to its enemy if they need be.

    Edit: Protesters have just occupied Presidential Office. This is without practical effect of course, the top brass won't wait to be arrested. But this is very symbolic. Proud of you, Cossacks.

    If Ukraine's military is really patriotic, enter high alert mode now. Polar bear may deem it time to strike before things are too late for it. Yet Russia is not the only country having Spetsnaz, you have, too. Ukraine military (be it national defence or internal troops), you don't need to choose side because there is always only one single side you are with, with your people. Cossacks, show no mercy to invaders!!

    And Hail to Justice, Ms. Yulia Tymoshenko is to be released.
    Last edited by squirrel; 22-02-2014 at 02:20 PM.

  20. #80
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus coldvvvave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrel View Post
    If Ukraine's military is really patriotic, enter high alert mode now. Polar bear may deem it time to strike before things are too late for it. Yet Russia is not the only country having Spetsnaz, you have, too. Ukraine military (be it national defence or internal troops), you don't need to choose side because there is always only one single side you are with, with your people. Cossacks, show no mercy to invaders!!
    For christsakes, what polar bear? It's brown bear. Get it right.
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