RPS Blood Bowl League - The many, many Divisions of Death!

[ChainsawHands]

depending on where the player took the re-rolls.

The odds don't depend on anything, there's no actual choice about the rerolls - they go on the first failed dodges.

Using my extensive intuitive grasp of probability, I can confirm Everblue's calculations of 64% chance with TRR, which is roughly equal to the odds of an AG3 player making a single dodge into an open square without a reroll. That's really not particularly challenging.

[squirrelfanatic]

The odds don't depend on anything, there's no actual choice about the rerolls - they go on the first failed dodges. Using my extensive intuitive grasp of probability, I can confirm Everblue's calculations of 64% chance with TRR, which is roughly equal to the odds of an AG3 player making a single dodge into an open square without a reroll. That's really not particularly challenging.

Wait, did I get that wrong? Isn't there a difference between

success->no-success(re-roll, success)-no-success(re-roll, success) and
no success(re-roll, success)->no-success(re-roll, success)->success?

[ChainsawHands]

Well, after you've made the first roll and either passed or burned a reroll to pass then your odds for the rest of the steps will be different, but we want the overall odds for the whole thing before we know which of those will happen.

Think of it as each roll (or reroll) being a new crotch in the (multi-legged, branching) Trousers of Time: each time you roll a die the Trousers split six ways, and at the feet you've either got a success foot or a failure foot. What you've given there are the legs that lead to some of the success feet, and you're right that there may be different numbers of success feet along each of those legs. What we want to do,though, is work out, over all the legs, how many success feet vs failure feet there are.

[Zenohero]

In all honesty, the dodges weren't the thing that were lucky I felt, it was actually knocking over your ball carrier when you had a 2d block. I am horrible at math, but their was a 33% chance of me suffering a turnover, a 33% chance of only having a push occur, and a 33% chance of me knocking you down without sending my Gutter Runner to the floor. So that was 1/3 chance +a reroll... my head hurts already lol. While the dodges were tough, I had two rerolls in the bank and it's not like you could do more after I knocked your ball carrier over and grabbed it. You through a 2d blitz and didn't knock my ball carrier over and you forced a slightly risky chance at a TD. I tend to have good dice rolls and even then, I had to throw a risky 1d blitz and then a 2d blitz with your choice to have any chance at actually removing the ball from your hand before it got into the unbreakable cage.

Edit: and if I remember correctly, I got through the 4+ one succesfully, burned my dodge reroll on the 3+ and then had to use a team reroll on the 2+. Not sure if that helps any.

edit edit: I forgot, so it was a 33% chance I think divided by 2 for you picking the dice + a reroll.... damn you math!

[ChainsawHands]

edit edit: I forgot, so it was a 33% chance I think divided by 2 for you picking the dice + a reroll.... damn you math!

1/3 chance per die, opponent's picking so you need both 1/3 chances to come up, that's a 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9 chance of a knockdown (11%), 8/9 chance of not knocking down. With a reroll the chances of them both not being a knockdown are 8/9 x 8/9 = 64/81, so 17/81 chance of passing, which *uses calculator* comes to 21%.

[potatoedoughnut]

Well, after you've made the first roll and either passed or burned a reroll to pass then your odds for the rest of the steps will be different, but we want the overall odds for the whole thing before we know which of those will happen.

Think of it as each roll (or reroll) being a new crotch in the (multi-legged, branching) Trousers of Time: each time you roll a die the Trousers split six ways, and at the feet you've either got a success foot or a failure foot. What you've given there are the legs that lead to some of the success feet, and you're right that there may be different numbers of success feet along each of those legs. What we want to do,though, is work out, over all the legs, how many success feet vs failure feet there are.

You're a hero.

Also the success of a -2d block is 11.11% (20.98% w/ TRR). That was the tricky part, making dodges with agi 4 and dodge is not that tough (as multiple people have noted).

[Everblue]

Think of it as each roll (or reroll) being a new crotch in the (multi-legged, branching) Trousers of Time: each time you roll a die the Trousers split six ways, and at the feet you've either got a success foot or a failure foot. What you've given there are the legs that lead to some of the success feet, and you're right that there may be different numbers of success feet along each of those legs. What we want to do,though, is work out, over all the legs, how many success feet vs failure feet there are.

That is simultaneously the most helpful and unhelpful post I have ever read.

Edit - Also it makes me think about Rincewind and the Luggage. Not sure why I mention that.

[squirrelfanatic]

Well, after you've made the first roll and either passed or burned a reroll to pass then your odds for the rest of the steps will be different, but we want the overall odds for the whole thing before we know which of those will happen.

Of course, you are right. I know about that trousers thing, somehow my mind was convinced that adding together different pairs of trousers would give me different amounts of feet and... ah, forget it. I wouldn't even know how to re-roll feet anyways. I stand corrected.

Still. Skaven. Fuck'em.

[Everblue]

Incidentally - that odds checker is amazing - I'm going to have it open during all my games from now on!

I've previously been using probability trees, but not really practical during a game...

Thanks for the link, 'Hands

[ChainsawHands]

Thanks for the link, 'Hands

You're welcome - I saw your 64% calculation on the last page, thought "really?" and googled "blood bowl odds calculator". ;-)

[Zenohero]

Of course, you are right. I know about that trousers thing, somehow my mind was convinced that adding together different pairs of trousers would give me different amounts of feet and... ah, forget it. I wouldn't even know how to re-roll feet anyways. I stand corrected.

Still. Skaven. Fuck'em.

please don't say that, Chad is next and I he has 5 (!) ST 4 or higher units who may think the same exact thing as they go in for a tackle >.<

[squirrelfanatic]

please don't say that, Chad is next and I he has 5 (!) ST 4 or higher units who may think the same exact thing as they go in for a tackle >.<

Oh, I say that about nearly any team that hits the weak spot of the Orcs. Ag4, lots of Dodge, more Block than me, high MV, and combinations thereof.

Norse. Fuck 'em.

[Zenohero]

What he means is chad, is that you shouldn't try and bash the Skaven, but instead play the honored norse tradition of passing the ball ;)

[chadsexington]

What he means is chad, is that you shouldn't try and bash the Skaven, but instead play the honored norse tradition of passing the ball ;)

Blood for Baal!
Blood for Baal!

[LowKey]

Nuffle hates calculations

[Kajo]

That site made me paranoid.

A wrackle strip baller has a 57% chance to steal the ball with a reroll, 82% with a TRR... on a -3D!


EDIT: add there a dodge on a 6+ in the tackle zones = 21% ç_ç

[Prester John]

DIV F PROBLEM

Ok just tried to play my match with Skydancer, as noted on the spreadsheet...but Div F is set up for me to play with DaWink (not Skydancer). Not around til monday now. Suggestions on a postcard please? Can probably play 2 games next week depending on opponent avail....?

[ntw]

DIV F PROBLEM

Ok just tried to play my match with Skydancer, as noted on the spreadsheet...but Div F is set up for me to play with DaWink (not Skydancer). Not around til monday now. Suggestions on a postcard please? Can probably play 2 games next week depending on opponent avail....?

Crap - that's 2 we messed up this time :(

Play your week3 fixtures (according to the sheet) in Week2 (i.e. now)

[Skydancer]

Crap - that's 2 we messed up this time :(

Play your week3 fixtures (according to the sheet) in Week2 (i.e. now)

We need to keep you off vodka for a while! :p

[Jarvis]

That is simultaneously the most helpful and unhelpful post I have ever read.

Edit - Also it makes me think about Rincewind and the Luggage. Not sure why I mention that.

The Trousers of Time as a description for alternate realities is a discworld thing.