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  1. #1
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Rii's Avatar
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    Where do you see gaming in the future?



    Game design, interface technology, financial models, audience distribution, etc. All aspects of the medium and industry are up for discussion.

    On the hardware side I expect that both consoles and PCs in their present form will cease to exist, being supplanted most immediately by iPhone/iPad-esque base units interfacing wirelessly with various I/O options (keyboards, kinect++, displays, etc.) as necessary. In addition to the iPhone/iPad and corresponding rise of the app store and related phenomena of casual gaming, early harbingers of this evolution can be noted in Windows 8 and Wii U.

  2. #2
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    I think CRPGs will merge with "immersive sims" and end up being real-time first person games in huge living worlds with completely hidden statistics and levelling.

  3. #3
    Lesser Hivemind Node icupnimpn2's Avatar
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    Microsoft will allow you to choose your felt color from a palette in Solitaire

  4. #4
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Kadayi's Avatar
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    I don't think we are going to see any large seismic shifts for a while simply because of hardware adoption rates & overall world wide economic paucity. In order to get (adopts Gary Oldman voice) 'everyone' over to using touch pads and or virtual controllers they are going to have to surpass M&K in terms of performance, and it's debatable as to whether that's achievable or whether people would want it. Things like kinect are fun in short bursts...but an hour or so can be pretty exhausting tbh.

    I think we are probably a good couple of years away from any further console announcements. Albeit the 360 is showing it's age, there just isn't the vibrant economy out there at present (or on the horizon) for Microsoft to start thinking about selling an entirely new console. Subsequently I say what we are likely to experience over the next few years is a period of consolidation where in developers will try and squeeze as much performance as they can out of the 360, with PC now leading the technology charge.
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  5. #5
    Activated Node EnterTheStory's Avatar
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    Long term? Convergence. For years people have talked about movies and games merging completely, but it just turns out to be harder than it looks. But once the AI is good enough then more of the hard stuff can be automated. Of course a movie still needs a core story, but each person can then experience it in a way that fits them best.

    Longer term? More convergence. Social media and networks of real time constant interaction rather than stand alone products.

    Even longer term? More convergence. Businesses communicate via avatars. Each person is their own avatar (identity is, after all, merely a construct that depends on the wider society)

    Why convergence? Because the whole point of playing is to practice for real life. it's why baby lions fight and why children have toys based on real things.

    IMO

  6. #6
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Kadayi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EnterTheStory View Post
    Long term? Convergence. For years people have talked about movies and games merging completely, but it just turns out to be harder than it looks. But once the AI is good enough then more of the hard stuff can be automated. Of course a movie still needs a core story, but each person can then experience it in a way that fits them best.
    Movies and games are diametrically opposed experiences (one being passive, the other active). Sure both are vehicles to deliver narrative, but you can't always assume that the audience wants to be the driver vs the passenger.

    Longer term? More convergence. Social media and networks of real time constant interaction rather than stand alone products.
    There are always going to be rivals. Firstly because these things require finance (thus market incentive) and secondly because a specialist outlet can always outpace a jack of all trades.

    Even longer term? More convergence. Businesses communicate via avatars. Each person is their own avatar (identity is, after all, merely a construct that depends on the wider society)
    Successful businesses is all about clear communication. Even in this day and age of video conferencing, people still prefer to meet face to face, because a large part of human communication is driven by non-verbal signifiers. Half the reason the internet is one big argument simply comes down to the fact that words are only part of the equation.

    Why convergence? Because the whole point of playing is to practice for real life. it's why baby lions fight and why children have toys based on real things.
    Like Star Wars Lego? I'll be honest I'm not buying the notion of play is practice for real life. The reason lion cubs play fight is because they don't have Nintendo 3DS as an option on the Serengeti.
    Certainly some forms of play can be educational and investigative, but mostly I'd say play games for enjoyment/fun.
    Why yes you're right I'm deliciously evil

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  7. #7
    Activated Node EnterTheStory's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kadayi View Post
    Movies and games are diametrically opposed experiences (one being passive, the other active).
    Isn't it a continuum? Games have passive elements and movies have active elements, at least mentally: two people can take away different messages from a movie, so they must be involved in some way.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kadayi View Post
    Successful businesses is all about clear communication.
    The right image helps that. Hence branding.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kadayi View Post
    I'm not buying the notion of play is practice for real life. The reason lion cubs play fight is because they don't have Nintendo 3DS as an option on the Serengeti.
    And if they had Nintendo they'd play fighting games.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kadayi View Post
    Certainly some forms of play can be educational and investigative, but mostly I'd say play games for enjoyment/fun.
    It says a lot about our education system that fun and education are taken as opposites.

  8. #8
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Xercies's Avatar
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    The AAA games will get worse, there will be more and more COD and COD clones a nd it will get to a point where the market can't handle that or get bored of it and the games industry will crash because it seems all the companies really want to put there egg in that particular basket.

  9. #9
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    I believe that people will start migrating to the PC for any number of reasons:
    - They discover that its cheaper in the long run
    - They see games like BF3 running on a PC with better graphics and wonder "why doesn't mine look that good?"
    - F2P games run rampant (and more than likely PC only)

    Of course this assumes the general public is semi-tech-savy and misinformed about what a computer can actually do. (ie run steam on launch, plug in a controller and hook it up to your TV and bam, your own console.)

    Longer term I see Modern Shooter games falling down to the "Next Big Thing". I doubt the genre will require much thought as most people prefer a mindless experience rather than a cerebral challenge.

  10. #10
    Network Hub 8-bit's Avatar
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    subscriptions, subscriptions as far as the eye can see. GFWL will adopt a gold membership package claiming to offer a 'premium service' to players who want online gaming on the pc and the average customer (bless him) will eat it up. in the long term the onlive model (which I think is fine for short rentals) will take over and remove any doubt about the customer owning the thing they bought. course all the companies will have their own social network that you must sign up to before you start playing, this will obviously carry a charge for the more advanced features. COD will split away from the games industry to form its own, it will have a theme park open all year long, which will naturally hold special charges for 'premium rides'.

    the pc will adopt a lego style upgrade system to make it less intimidating to new customers, and the m&k will be thrown out in favor of touch screen monitors for us to wipe our sweaty palms all over.

    all of this is obviously already happening on a smaller scale, companies testing the waters and experimenting, but I expect it to become standard in the long run. who knows the pc itself might even carry a subscription, each monitor would have a fingerprint scanner which is tied directly to your bank account, don't have the money? sorry cant let you in.

    edit: oh and co-op will become the next big thing, everything will have co-op and you wont be able to play without a friend, who you obviously find on the social network site for that particular game. the indies will continue to fight the good fight, and with more powerful and easier to use tools at their disposal it will be easier for the smaller guys to stand out.
    Last edited by 8-bit; 08-07-2011 at 02:24 PM.

  11. #11
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Kadayi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EnterTheStory View Post
    Isn't it a continuum? Games have passive elements and movies have active elements, at least mentally: two people can take away different messages from a movie, so they must be involved in some way.
    No. You're confusing narrative as process.

    The right image helps that. Hence branding.
    Branding is a retail issue, and retail (the selling of goods) is just one facet of business. Logos and letterheads aren't a major currency in the broader business culture Vs work experience & legacy.

    And if they had Nintendo they'd play fighting games.
    I think you'll find the majority of Nintendo DS titles are puzzle/adventure/sim games.

    It says a lot about our education system that fun and education are taken as opposites.
    Relevance to what was previously said?

    Quote Originally Posted by Xercies View Post
    The AAA games will get worse, there will be more and more COD and COD clones and it will get to a point where the market can't handle that or get bored of it and the games industry will crash because it seems all the companies really want to put there egg in that particular basket.
    I think you'll probably find that there are far more people out there not playing CoD, than playing it. FPS (and I mean shooters, Vs FP experiences like Portal 2) are certainly popular, but they aren't all consuming. Unless overnight the bottom mysteriously falls out of RPGs or MMOs (some kind of gamers version of the Rapture) I'm not seeing this end of gaming cataclysm you seem to be predicting from occurring.
    Last edited by Kadayi; 08-07-2011 at 05:13 PM.
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  12. #12
    I do agree it will be about convergence. All the devices you own will eventually run compatable OS's. Completely impossible to predict what will happen to games though imo.

  13. #13
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    Doubtful, we've had computers for what, fifty years now? And we've yet to see a universal operating system.

    That's not to say games won't go multiplatform. I can see something like WoW having a separate mobile functionality allowing you to play it in some manner no matter where you are or what device; for an additional price of course.

    Which is pretty much the way the industry seems to be going. The onus now is to lock in a fanbase to a product rather than creating multiple individual products.

  14. #14
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Kadayi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CuriousOrange View Post
    I do agree it will be about convergence. All the devices you own will eventually run compatable OS's. Completely impossible to predict what will happen to games though imo.
    Ok I'm Steve Jobs...what's my incentive as a businessman to make my goods and services work hand in hand with yours? What's for the greater good Vs ensuring consistent profitable returns for both myself & my shareholders? Unless there is some tactical business advantage to reaching out the olive branch to a rival corporation over software issues (and all corporations are rivals) I'm simply not going to do it, because there is nothing in it for me as a businessman & a shareholder.
    Last edited by Kadayi; 08-07-2011 at 05:38 PM. Reason: crazy caps
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  15. #15
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Xercies's Avatar
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    I think you'll probably find that there are far more people out there not playing CoD, than playing it. FPS (and I mean shooters, Vs FP experiences like Portal 2) are certainly popular, but they aren't all consuming. Unless overnight the bottom mysteriously falls out of RPGs or MMOs (some kind of gamers version of the Rapture) I'm not seeing this end of gaming cataclysm you seem to be predicting from occurring.
    I think you'll find according to the big publishers and the amount of sales these things get Your kind of wrong. Sure there are other genres out there, but it does look like that a lot of publishers and especially Activision are milking the COD thing as much as its worth. Meaning other things don't get made that much.

    Just like F2P the COD bubble isn't going to last, and the thing is they work to much on their games to notice that. It takes about 2 years for them to make it maybe up to 4 if there really getting into it. So they can't change tactics unti leverything is out there, by that time it will be to late. Just look at Activision, if it wasn't for COD and Blizzard propping them up they probably would be losing a lot of money because basically, they have no other games that sell that well.

  16. #16
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Kadayi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xercies View Post
    I think you'll find according to the big publishers and the amount of sales these things get Your kind of wrong.
    Show me the evidence to support your argument then. Convince me with some hard facts here. By your 'blockbuster logic' the only films that would get made are Transformers. Yet that's quite clearly not the case is it.

    Sure there are other genres out there, but it does look like that a lot of publishers and especially Activision are milking the COD thing as much as its worth. Meaning other things don't get made that much.
    The reason Activision 'milk' CoD is simply down to the fact that they don't have many serviceable IPs left (blame Bobby Kotick and his slash and burn approach to development studios). EA on the other hand have a tonne; Dead Space, Mass Effect, Dragon Age, The Sims, BF, Mirrors Edge, TOR, MoH, C&C/RA, NFS, Burnout and that's not even including the sport ones.

    Do you honestly think that EA are going to wrap up the Sims franchise with 'sorry ladies, not more house making and constructive game play for you. Here's your rifle..time for killstreaks' ? Sims might not have the pizzazz of CoD, but it's a phenomenal money maker for EA with a steady audience. Why would they give it all up?

    What ultimately drives markets is player demand, and much like with movies there are many markets that cater to myriad tastes. Consumers taste ultimately drive markets.
    Last edited by Kadayi; 08-07-2011 at 11:29 PM.
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  17. #17
    Lesser Hivemind Node icupnimpn2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kadayi View Post
    Show me the evidence to support your argument then. Convince me with some hard facts here. By your 'blockbuster logic' the only films that would get made are Transformers. Yet that's quite clearly not the case is it.
    ...
    What ultimately drives markets is player demand, and much like with movies there are many markets that cater to myriad tastes. Consumers taste ultimately drive markets.
    Kadayi is absolutely right. It doesn't matter what market, not every firm can focus on the biggest dollar item. CoD may be super successful, but if you're another developer you have to hesitate before saying, "I'm going to take their consumer base." You want to go toe to toe with Goliath? Not everyone is David. Before David, everyone else got their tails kicked. And that leads you to look at making different games. Maybe you make several games to cater to smaller audiences. Altogether, they may make as much money as a half of one CoD. But that's a viable business.

    There is no school in business education saying, "put your eggs in the basket with all of the other eggs." From day one of b-school, the moral of the story is finding SOME WAY to create a unique advantage for yourself. And while developers and artists are making the games, it's the b-school grads driving these companies. They all can quote you Porter's Five Forces, and they should know better than to approach cornered markets.

    Look at the success of the Cooking Mama franchise. Low production costs, tons of sequels and spin-offs. Sales were 1.6 million North American units by 2008. By 2011, there were 8.6 million units sole in North America and a total of 12 million worldwide. And you can't get much further from CoD.

  18. #18
    Network Hub Splynter's Avatar
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    I can see simulation becoming a much more important part of games. With computers as powerful as they are today, the simulation of an in-game world is becoming more and more viable, and could lead to wonderful emergent gameplay experiences. Look at Minecraft for instance (actually, Dwarf Fortress is a much better example). I hope that advances in AI occur, as something like "Radiant AI" sure isn't sufficient for the type of living, breathing worlds I would like to see. I guess this is more of a "where I would like to see the gaming world go", not necessarily what it will. This probably stems from my view of video games as proper alternate realities, not simply directed excursions through a plot.

    I can also see big budget games trying more and more to become movies, though I can't say that's a path I tend to endorse, as they are fundamentally different mediums and should be treated as such. Portal 2 I think nailed the signposted, scripted experience in every way, whereas the scripting in the latest COD was so obvious as to be insulting.

  19. #19
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Kadayi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by icupnimpn2 View Post
    Kadayi is absolutely right. It doesn't matter what market, not every firm can focus on the biggest dollar item. CoD may be super successful, but if you're another developer you have to hesitate before saying, "I'm going to take their consumer base." You want to go toe to toe with Goliath? Not everyone is David. Before David, everyone else got their tails kicked. And that leads you to look at making different games. Maybe you make several games to cater to smaller audiences. Altogether, they may make as much money as a half of one CoD. But that's a viable business.
    Exactly. The recent chest thumping by john Riccotello over BF3 as a CoD killer is kind of the exception rather than the norm. But in a way whether more people 'play' BF3 instead of CoD is actually an irrelevance as long as BF3 does gangbusters in terms of sales at launch (which it so far it's shaping up to do). That speech was really for shareholder confidence in EA being profitable next year more than anything else. If they sell as many units of BF3 as say MW2 did then achievement unlocked really. Whether MW3 sells as well is kind of unimportant to them.



    As an aside to anyone reading I think speculating on the future can be a good exercise, but as an exercise I also think it's also doubly important to think critically on a subject before posting. If you have a belief/position on something, say for example 'in the future everything will be motion controlled' test it out by asking yourself 'will everything in the future be motion controlled?' and seeing if you can find a flaw with that line of reasoning/position. If you find you can't convince yourself, you sure as hell aren't going to convince other people to your viewpoint, so either reconfigure you position (see below) or reject it.

    Generally the world isn't catch all (it's way too complex for that), and the 'everything' absolute idealist tag rarely fits comfortably. There's a huge amount of difference for example between saying 'I believe that in the future motion control will likely become ever more common place, both in and outside of gaming' versus 'I believe everything in the future will be motion controlled'. That difference is what separates a post that will likely be dismissed Vs one that will be considered by the audience.
    Last edited by Kadayi; 09-07-2011 at 02:25 AM.
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  20. #20

    This.

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