The right time to upgrade: 2014

[mashakos]

This is for high end at least.

The next leap in gpu and cpu architectures seems to be in 2014:

nvidia roadmap


AMD roadmap


intel roadmap



The last time this happened was in 2006. Compare the highest end hardware of 2005 to that of 2006:
CPU: Amd Athlon FX-60, worth $1000+
absolutely trounced by: Intel Core 2 Duo E6400 worth $400

GPU: nvidia Geforce 7950 GX2, supports dx9 only, worth $600+
absolutely trounced by: nvidia Geforce 8800GTX, supports dx10, worth $500

A top of the line 2005 machine, worth $3000 was relegated to mid/low end in the span of a year, and is now totally worthless performance wise.
Meanwhile, a top of the line 2006 machine is still relevant today (Core 2 Extreme quad core, 4GB ram 8800GTX)

discuss.

[Grizzly]

That's what they said in 2012!

[mashakos]

That's what they said in 2012!

you jest, but I honestly thought the big jump was going to happen with LGA2011 / Kepler. Sadly I was mistaken.
Sure, the gtx680 and the core i7 3930k/3960x are huge upgrades but not something that will last till 2017...

[Grizzly]

you jest, but I honestly thought the big jump was going to happen with LGA2011 / Kepler. Sadly I was mistaken.

Me too, that's why I said it :P.
I am quite sure that most of this will actually depend on the console market - Nvidia may shout "Super effeciënt cards next year!" but they first need to deliver, and super effeciency will not mean that absolute performance actually increases.

[Sakkura]

Exponential performance growth is nothing new. And the GTX 600s and HD 7000s were major upgrades over their predecessors already. Measured by today's demands, the difference between eg. a Geforce 256 and a Geforce4 Ti is tiny, but it was huge back then.

Or in other words, that first graph needs to have a logarithmic Y axis.

[deano2099]

The last time this happened was in 2006.

When the last generation of consoles launched. The next is in 2014, so all seems quite likely.

[mashakos]

Measured by today's demands, the difference between eg. a Geforce 256 and a Geforce4 Ti is tiny, but it was huge back then.

really? I think the difference was huge - the geforce 4 Ti outclassed the PS2 and xbox while the original geforce 256 was a step up from the voodoo 2.

[Kadayi]

@mashakos

Do you think with the proposed specs of the new consoles there's going to much need for big upgrades overall? Also do you envisage a shift towards Blu-Ray as far as discs go, or do you see microsoft maybe copping out paying Sony the licence and opting for something else (maybe reviving HD-DVD as a game only format?)

[mashakos]

Me too, that's why I said it :P.
I am quite sure that most of this will actually depend on the console market - Nvidia may shout "Super effeciënt cards next year!" but they first need to deliver, and super effeciency will not mean that absolute performance actually increases.

I'm not realy focussing on what's in the roadmap announcements, just that it looks to be the right time for a generation leap as deano2099 mentioned:

When the last generation of consoles launched. The next is in 2014, so all seems quite likely.

@mashakos

Do you think with the proposed specs of the new consoles there's going to much need for big upgrades overall? Also do you envisage a shift towards Blu-Ray as far as discs go, or do you see microsoft maybe copping out paying Sony the licence and opting for something else (maybe reviving HD-DVD as a game only format?)

it's hard to compare consoles and PCs on specs alone, remember that the nvidia 7950 GX2 is way more powerful than the Nvidia RSX chip found in the PS3 yet that card cannot even hope to match what has been possible on that console. Some of the more advanced PS3 exclusives use the cpu for most graphics rendering, which tells you that developers have spent a lot of time and effort eking out performance from console hardware in a way PC devs never will (or practically be able to considering the variety of hardware configurations).

Regarding Bluray, it's hard to say. If Rockstar are comfortable releasing Max Payne 3 - a 23GB game - on steam then it might mean the focus for game distribution will be online only for the PC. As I understand it, a lot of game developers have voiced their discomfort in releasing retail on the PC because of how unpredictable it is. Steam as a more "developer friendly" way for them to make and sell PC games, since it has proven it's commercial viability over the past 5 years.

[Sakkura]

really? I think the difference was huge - the geforce 4 Ti outclassed the PS2 and xbox while the original geforce 256 was a step up from the voodoo 2.

The difference was huge back then, as I just said. But measured by today's performance, they are both nearly equally weak. Put them in that graph of yours up top and they'd both be pretty much at 0.

That's the whole point, the graph is misleading. There is nothing sudden and revolutionary in that roadmap, just a steady performance progression as usual.

[The JG Man]

Regarding blu-ray, considering both new consoles from MS and Sony will be using it, along with the fact that even Nintendo uses a version of it with the WiiU, I wouldn't be surprised if some PC multi-platform titles had a blu-ray retail copy...of course, I could also see PC going even more towards digital distribution, something even Nintendo has caught on to, which should say something. Even if they're still awful at it, but that's another argument.

Well I suppose this thread has helped me, actually. I was going to upgrade my graphics card this year, considering I built this in 2011 and put in a 6850. It seems it'd be best I wait a little while longer. No harm done!

[Heliocentric]

Does that first graph look like an acceleration curve to anyone else? As in, a suggestion that things are not indeed tapering off?

[Lukasz]

8000 series from amd will be released in second quarter of this year. That surely will result in price drop of 7000 and 600 series. So I would wait with gpu update unless you need one right now.

[mashakos]

The difference was huge back then, as I just said. But measured by today's performance, they are both nearly equally weak. Put them in that graph of yours up top and they'd both be pretty much at 0.

That's the whole point, the graph is misleading. There is nothing sudden and revolutionary in that roadmap, just a steady performance progression as usual.

look at it this way: there may not be that big a leap graphically when you go from a Dreamcast to a Playstation 2/xbox, but if you purchased Dreamcast level PC hardware, you were pretty much out of luck during that generation unless you made a major PC overhaul (SDRam to DDR, P4 to Athlon, dx7 gpu to dx8/dx9 gpu).

[Sakkura]

look at it this way: there may not be that big a leap graphically when you go from a Dreamcast to a Playstation 2/xbox, but if you purchased Dreamcast level PC hardware, you were pretty much out of luck during that generation unless you made a major PC overhaul (SDRam to DDR, P4 to Athlon, dx7 gpu to dx8/dx9 gpu).

I'd love to look at it that way, but your graph does not look at it that way. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

[Sakkura]

8000 series from amd will be released in second quarter of this year. That surely will result in price drop of 7000 and 600 series. So I would wait with gpu update unless you need one right now.

Not necessarily, the 6000s and 500s didn't really get much cheaper when the current hardware was introduced.

Does that first graph look like an acceleration curve to anyone else? As in, a suggestion that things are not indeed tapering off?

It's the same exponential growth you see in most aspects of computer performance. It's an offshoot of Moore's law. It does not mean that dramatic gains are about to be made, it simply means business as usual. Then again, it's only a roadmap.

[Heliocentric]

I completely agree, x2 horsepower results in only incremental performance gains, nature of having so many choke points.

[mashakos]

I'd love to look at it that way, but your graph does not look at it that way. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

the leap was pretty gigantic from 2005 to 2006 if you may recall. Also:

I'm not realy focussing on what's in the roadmap announcements, just that it looks to be the right time for a generation leap as deano2099 mentioned:

[DaftPunk]

I dont know if people saw on main RPS page,but there was article about new console's hardware and it wasn't looking good for them lol.

[corbain]

the leap was pretty gigantic from 2005 to 2006 if you may recall. Also:

Sakkura is right mate, read up on logarithmic scale and then come back

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale

Think about it like the stock market.

if you took a graph showing from back when the FTSE-100 index was at 500.. the leap from 500 to 750 pts is a HUGE 50% leap.

If you then show a graph of the whole FTSE-100 history up until today, that leap from 500 to 750 seems an inconsequential mini stepping stone on the path to 6,300 where we stand today.

It's not quite the same thing, but illustrates how scale changes how big a step something seems.