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  1. #1
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    What the No Man's Sky debacle means for Star Citizen

    Now that we have all seen the online backlash and refund-storm that has come in the wake of the No Man's Sky release, can Star Citizen actually be released at all?

    The chances of S.C. ever being released were always slim in my opinion but I think they just got slimmer. Particularly because precedent was set long ago for very large refunds for its virtual ships. As a result, I think RSI has only one possible option: to keep the game in the vapour-ware stage forever, letting out just enough to satisfy the rabid fans and YouTube commenters and never presenting a final product to be judged.

    No Man's Sky was over-hyped due to the obscene marketing campaign, reckless promises and complete failure to manage expectations or demonstrate any sort of honesty. The developers promised that the game would, quite literally, be Everything and, because that raked in backers and pre-orders, they never had the moral fortitude to tell us what they were actually going to make. Star Citizen is like this, only a thousand thousand times worse. The crater it will leave will be incredible, should it ever land.

    What do you think? What happens, now? I haven't been following S.C. for years, to be honest, because I got tired to the flame-wars and delays and hype and fanatical communities. Have you? Perhaps you are more informed and can weigh-in on this thought.

  2. #2
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus L_No's Avatar
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    In my opinion, there are a few options:

    - Nothing changes. SC is delayed even more, is eventually released, and faces the same fate as NMS: missing features, disappointing gameplay, technical troubles, angry customers.
    - The SC dev team decides that it needs to manage expectations and slowly starts to downplay the features the game will have. Where some fans now expect it to be the be-all and end-all for space games, the SC devs stress which features the game doesn't have. If I were part of the SC team, that is what I would do.
    - SC is never released in a playable state. Lots of angry backers, lots of "I told you so's".
    - SC is released and actually manages to live up to the hype. Extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

    I think the hole the SC team is in is deeper than the NMS team's hole, in a way. While NMS might not meet expectations, it is in fact available for purchase, actually works (in a way) and might still redeem itself as updates and mods are released and the game enters bundle/steam sale territory. I see myself purchasing NMS when it's cheaper, and I think a lot of people will do the same. NMS had no drama with kickstarter rewards that are never delivered, extremely expensive pre-purchase ships and consistent rumours of endless redesigns and internal conflict. SC does, which increases the chances of a terrible flop and means that even more people would be happy to see the game fail.
    Last edited by L_No; 17-08-2016 at 03:46 PM.
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  3. #3
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    The sale thing is a good point. It is actually entirely possible that NMS can save itself with a boat-load of fixes, do-overs and a good sale to make up for the complete dearth of content. It could even become a cult hit in the future. I don't think it will - I don't think the developers have the guts to pull a complete do-over of a lot of stuff. Still, it isn't impossible.

    Can't really start throwing out sales for S.C. stuff, yet. The premise of sales is people who paid full price paid more to enjoy the content between the time that they bought it and the time that the sale occurred. Nobody has ACTUALLY got any value from their S.C. content, yet, outside of Arena Commander.

    I really don't think that RSI are the type to "manage expectations", though, so I suspect that your second point will not actually happen, in reality. They seem to like basking in the glory of their promises... like brexit politicians.

  4. #4
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus EPICTHEFAIL's Avatar
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    Well, the one saving grace of SC is that it hasn't released, though it may end up doing so sooner or later. I have heard talk of CIG releasing a "minimum viable product", which is vague even by business-speak standards, but the more likely option is a DayZ-style perpetual beta state. As long as they haven't technically released anything, they can remain hidden under the critic-proof shield of "oh, but it's still a beta", but the moment they officially launch something, it will inevitably be torn apart. People have invested so much into the game by this point (and don't even get me started on the cult-like behaviour this has engendered) that even the slightest flaws will be blown out of proportion and result in a complete meltdown, in an orders of magnitude more severe case of what happened for Elite's and indeed NMS' launches.

    Frankly, I've come to view the whole PU side of things as a write-off. I haven't played it in months due to the lack of free weekends and ever-worsening performance issues, but videos and streams seem to indicate that it just keeps getting more and more unstable without making any meaningful steps forward in terms of content or gameplay. True, they have introduced an in-game currency recently, but it hasn't had any meaningful effect on the gameplay from what I can tell. Squadron 42 might be in better shape, assuming it doesn't cripple itself with endless redesigns the way the PU has, but the rumours of constant reshoots do not paint a pretty picture either, and don't get me started on the hiring of A-list actors when they're already rumoured to be in budgetary dire straits.

    Either way, I highly doubt we'll ever see a proper release, and in a way I almost hope we don't. SC has been a perfect storm of excessive hype, community management that turns reasonable people into obsessive cultists, laughably extortionate real-money stores that exist purely to exploit the gullible and the desperate. And desperate really is the right word, the only reason SC has been so successful is that it was the first of the new wave of space sims, a genre that had been near non-existent on PC for a decade, run by one of the people who established the genre no less, and long-time fans immediately latched on driven by nostalgia and irrational hopes for a return to the games that defined their childhoods, and then some (in many cases) and CIG were more than happy to milk their nostalgia and optimism for all they were worth. If they succeed, then it would send big publishers and nostalgia-baiting twats on KS alike the message that this is not only acceptable, but actually works, and that's just not healthy for the industry or for consumers, especially in a day and age where communities can already get incredibly toxic.

  5. #5
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Jesus_Phish's Avatar
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    Star Citizen is never coming out, so nothing.
    "Halo is designed to make the player think "I look like that, I am macho sitting in my undies with my xbox""

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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus_Phish View Post
    Star Citizen is never coming out, so nothing.
    Hate to say it, but...this looks most likely. My sympathies to early backers.

  7. #7
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus Wenz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus_Phish View Post
    Star Citizen is never coming out, so nothing.
    Thank you Jesus.

  8. #8
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    I suspect Star Citizens problems will more be along the line of running out of people willing to pay for it before release, rather than releasing (as it turned out) too early like NMS.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wenz View Post
    Thank you Jesus.
    I see what you did there. And it made me laugh.

  10. #10
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    I am fairly positive the NMS debacle will make the likely Star Citizen failure less explosive. People will somewhat temper their expectations, consciously or not.

  11. #11
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    Are you excepting that crowd will learn from past mistakes? Oh boy.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackcompany View Post
    Hate to say it, but...this looks most likely. My sympathies to early backers.
    Don't be, I'm an early backer and I've made my money back via the grey market. I dumped ~$600 into Star Citizen in 2012/13, since then I've sold (at a profit) all but one of my items on it. I've made back my $600 and have my original ~$180 game package at zero net cost.

    If it never releases or it flops, I'll be smug. If it releases and is good, I'll be smug. Win-win.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by EPICTHEFAIL View Post
    Frankly, I've come to view the whole PU side of things as a write-off. I haven't played it in months due to the lack of free weekends and ever-worsening performance issues, but videos and streams seem to indicate that it just keeps getting more and more unstable without making any meaningful steps forward in terms of content or gameplay. True, they have introduced an in-game currency recently, but it hasn't had any meaningful effect on the gameplay from what I can tell. Squadron 42 might be in better shape, assuming it doesn't cripple itself with endless redesigns the way the PU has, but the rumours of constant reshoots do not paint a pretty picture either, and don't get me started on the hiring of A-list actors when they're already rumoured to be in budgetary dire straits.
    I still see the PU as saveable, the content is there, they have added in a new station in 2.5 on the PTU and outlaw stuff but boy are they slow.

    I think Squadron 42 will be released, whether its complete, I'm not so sure. I can see them doing a Valve and making it episode and then not finishing them. That way they have made good on the initial promise and the game is out.

    They have too many employees to be vapor ware forever.


    I am enjoying NMS and I enjoyed Fable. I probably will enjoy Squadron 42, and I suspect I am in the majority of players. NMS sold huge numbers, Star Citizen made huge numbers, this means that the noise of disappointment is louder than your average game and I still think its just noise, we need to wait a month or so to see how it all settles down.

    And are they disappointing? Oh yes, but I can get over the disappointments and still enjoy the games. Its not an either or, we can like crap things.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by GameCat View Post
    Are you excepting that crowd will learn from past mistakes? Oh boy.
    The crowd is in general more effective than most publishers.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by GameCat View Post
    Are you excepting that crowd will learn from past mistakes? Oh boy.
    In the short term? Yeah, it happens. If Star Citizen does not explode anytime soon, most people will forget, but I think it is getting ripe.

  16. #16
    Network Hub Tevildo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkFenix View Post
    If it never releases or it flops, I'll be smug. If it releases and is good, I'll be smug. Win-win.
    How to make a win-win out of a smug-smug. You are a magician !
    Last edited by Tevildo; 18-08-2016 at 05:18 AM.

  17. #17
    I think plenty will be disappointed, and you'll see people making videos/articles/threads contrasting everything promised and everything delivered, but I don't think the collective outrage will be anywhere near as bad as it has been for No Man's Sky, mostly because we've actually been able to play Star Citizen before release. Awhile back, it had a free weekend, and even before that people have been able to buy an early-access-like version of the game. By letting it be playable up to release, people won't be blindsided by any missing features, so much as gradually becoming aware of the game's faults.

  18. #18
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus zanchito's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkFenix View Post
    Don't be, I'm an early backer and I've made my money back via the grey market. I dumped ~$600 into Star Citizen in 2012/13, since then I've sold (at a profit) all but one of my items on it. I've made back my $600 and have my original ~$180 game package at zero net cost.

    If it never releases or it flops, I'll be smug. If it releases and is good, I'll be smug. Win-win.
    Care to elaborate? I've got a simple racer ship (the 300i I think it's called?) and I've lost all faith in this project, I'd rather sell it and if it ever comes out and is good, buy again.
    Last edited by zanchito; 18-08-2016 at 01:13 PM.
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  19. #19
    Secondary Hivemind Nexus DaftPunk's Avatar
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    What was their first release date?

  20. #20
    Obscure Node xnorb's Avatar
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    I don't think anything changes. Not for Star Citizen, not for DayZ, not for any other Early Access title.

    We live in a really weird era in which people purchase a title and never play it after release as they already get everything out of the game in Early Access state.

    One day this whole Early Access thing will collapse, but NMS will not play any role in it.

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